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Don't know how it will track, but NYer's Prepare! Have food and water on hand along with candles, batteries. tie everything down. and get the generators on stand by if you have one.. Don't wait! Good luck and God Bless.
 

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Western NY is expected to receive between 3-4" of rain when the storm heads inland. Here's the latest Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall chart (5-day total). This assumes of course that Sandy comes on shore near Delaware/Maryland, and tracks straight through PA and in toward WNY. Sandy could come ashore North or South of where the National Weather Service is forecasting...

 

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Western NY is expected to receive between 3-4" of rain when the storm heads inland. Here's the latest Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall chart (5-day total). This assumes of course that Sandy comes on shore near Delaware/Maryland, and tracks straight through PA and in toward WNY. Sandy could come ashore North or South of where the National Weather Service is forecasting...
Hopes it misses. We jus received a ton of orders from firearm companies and if it dumps on us, the mill will go down. I heard a few years ago, you guys got popped with a winter storm in October. Will it be anything like that? Or just a ton of rain?
 

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Hopes it misses. We jus received a ton of orders from firearm companies and if it dumps on us, the mill will go down. I heard a few years ago, you guys got popped with a winter storm in October. Will it be anything like that? Or just a ton of rain?
A lot of rain. In fact, potentially more rain than this area has seen in a long, long time. Even more than what fell when the remnants of Hurricane Katrina barreled through WNY in 2005. The HPC image above is somewhat conservative as a few forecasts are saying as much as 7" of rain could fall in WNY between Monday and Thursday. That would undoubtedly cause urban, stream, and river flooding from the southern tier through Buffalo. It's not going to be a pleasant week. Make sure your sump pumps are in tip top shape - if your basement is prone to flooding, it's a good idea to have some extra pumping equipment handy.

The only good news is no snow is expected as the storm should wrap some warm air (50s most of next week) from the Atlantic. The October of 2006 storm was super isolated, it affected a narrow swath from Southern Niagara to just North of Buffalo (it was caused by a Lake Effect snow band). The big problem with the October 2006 storm was that MOST trees still had their foliage. So the wet snow stuck to the leaves and brought down tree limbs and power lines all over the place (north of Buffalo). I lived in North Tonawanda during that storm and I lost part of a wooden fence (due to a tree falling through it) and was without power for nearly a week (fortunately I bought a generator from Jamestown when that ordeal went down). From what the local weather guys have been saying, our biggest threat for power outages will be mid week (Wed/Thurs) next week after the storm goes through, there could be strong/high winds behind the storm that could bring down trees and power poles. The soil will be saturated and water logged if we pick up 7" of rain, making trees more susceptible to blowing over in high winds (45mph+).

Btw, do you run a firearms store and is it in NT somewhere?
 

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Just great, I already have a tree in the front yard that's like the leaning tower of Pisa, and no sump pump in my basement. Guess I better pay up the home owners insurance.

I work for republic steel in Lackawanna. I just do side/custom work on pretty much anything.
 

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If the tree is leaning toward your house, might not be a bad idea to take it down or at least cut any large limbs on the side that is leaning. If you don't have a sump you can pick up a decent water pump from any of the big box home stores (Lowes, etc.) and use that in case you start taking in any water. Since you don't have a sump, I would elevate any personal belongings in your basement at least a couple of feet off the concrete slab to err on the side of caution. Better safe than sorry.

I know an insurance agent and got the following advice from him - make sure your homeowner's policy has coverage for "water backup". It's designed to cover costs of damage to your furnace, refrigerator/freezer, and any other equipment/appliances damaged by flooding. Also, some policies will cover wall to wall carpeting and flooring. You need an actual flood policy for personal belongings and need to be in a flood zone for that type of policy. Flood policies are expensive (an extra $2k per year in most cases) and they can only be purchased through FEMA if you're in a designated flood zone.
 

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Just a copy/paste from some meteorological site :

Telling Northeasterners to chill is a bad idea. A local meteorologist explains why:

So here we are about 3 or 4 days away from what may be the worst storm for the Northeast since humans populated the area. I'm not kidding, that is a possibility. We know neither how strong this beast will be or exactly who will get the worst of it. Why? Because what is about to happen is unprecedented in the years that human have attempted to understand how the atmosphere works. Hurricanes have merged with colder air as an energetic jet stream interacts before. But perhaps not with the intensity of the factors coming into play this time. A similar scenario has happened before, back in 1991 ... the "Perfect Storm" of movie and book lore was born. Forecasts of that storm were awful leading up to it. The center of that system never made landfall along the East Coast. In fact, at its strongest the core of that storm was a few hundred miles east of New England. Here's what resulted: 80 mph winds and 25-foot waves on the Massachusetts Coast. Offshore buoys recorded 40-foot waves (that is enough to swallow a fishing boat). The Maryland Coast recorded record high tides. The lowest barometric pressure with that storm was 972 mb (that corresponds to 28.70" for those of you who are familiar with those units). Some computer forecast models drop the lowest pressure with Sandy to below 940 mb (27.75"). If you have a barometer at home, take a look at it - it doesn't go that low. If that occurs, this storm will bring the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded on the East Coast. Low pressure means wind, an tropical storm force winds already extend hundreds of miles away from the center of Sandy. Some believe as the storm approaches the coast it may intensify which means stronger winds. That means a widespread area of damage and power outages in the most populated part of the country. I feel there is a good chance we will still have some areas, perhaps entire communities, that lose power and still do not have it come Election Day a week later. Think about that ... no power on Election Day ... a hanging chad could pale in comparison.

But here's the problem ... the computer forecast models that all the forecasters will lean on so heavily have no chance of getting this exactly right. Models are either configured (numerically, in terms of the mathematical equations that drive them), to handle either tropical system well, or what we call mid-latitude systems well, that is ones with warm and cold air clashing. There is no model that handles both well. If there were we would have one great model and my life would be far less stressful. The hurricane will merge with colder air and energy from the jet stream and transition from a tropical system into what we call an extratropical one. Historically the computer forecast models are not good when this happens. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast takes Sandy early Tuesday into the New Jersey or Deleware Coast on a westward track (which by the way has NEVER happened since we have been keeping track of these sort of things). They may be weighing the models that handle tropical system a bit more heavily, but those models should become less accurate as the colder, mid-latitude air works into Sandy's circulation near landfall. As of early this afternoon we have a threat or landfall anywhere between the eastern shore of Maryland and Massachusetts. It may be later Monday or even as late as early Wednesday. We will hear about this storm for weeks after it happens. Homes will fall into the ocean and lives will be lost. If the damaging winds are widespread enough, it may be one of the costliest weather events in U.S. history due to the population likely affected.

Hopefully those near and along the coast in the Northeast are preparing for what will certainly be one for the ages.
 

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That means a widespread area of damage and power outages in the most populated part of the country. I feel there is a good chance we will still have some areas, perhaps entire communities, that lose power and still do not have it come Election Day a week later. Think about that ... no power on Election Day ... a hanging chad could pale in comparison.
This storm will become a political issue.
I say this: If NYC is flooded and has no subways etc on election day To Freakin Bad.
Maybe for once Western NY will dictate to the big city how things will be.
There is no doubt that we will hear screaming because the path of the storm is going to swamp all the Obama States from 2008.
Perhaps just as in the War of 1812 when the British were trying to burn Washington. George Washington believed that it was Divine Intervention that brought a Hurricane that put the fires out, we are getting a message saying NOT THIS TIME!
:cute:
 

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This storm has the potential to nail some red States as well. The Carolinas, Maryland, PA, and both Virginias could take quite a hit. As Demerson's post mentioned above, the exact track of this storm system is still a big question mark. If it makes landfall just a few hundred miles north or south of where it's predicted to make landfall, the game changes big-time. If the storm goes farther North and makes landfall near Long Island/NYC, it will no doubt be devastating. We can only hope Bloomie hangs around and has no idea how to swim. LOL.

Also, I had to add one thing from earlier. Make sure your gutters are cleaned out before this storm hits. Gutters can drain THOUSANDS of gallons or water away from your foundation. If they're clogged, those thousands of gallons will head for your foundation and eventually seep in and potentially cause or worsen a basement flood. Take the precautions now while you have a couple of days to prep!
 

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I like living on a hill, flooding is the other guys problem. I filled up the truck and all the gas cans too, generator at the ready, went grocery shopping last week and still have tons, and the bar is stocked. And lots of loaded guns....bring it
 

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Also, I had to add one thing from earlier. Make sure your gutters are cleaned out before this storm hits. Gutters can drain THOUSANDS of gallons or water away from your foundation. If they're clogged, those thousands of gallons will head for your foundation and eventually seep in and potentially cause or worsen a basement flood. Take the precautions now while you have a couple of days to prep!
I thought this was a great idea. . . til I fell off the got damn roof. It was really slippery. Just as I knew it was too late, I jumped so I could at least land on my feet and roll. My back hurts a little, but the gutters are clean. Gonna go buy gas for the generator and some groceries tonite. I'm thinking about maybe plugging up the culvert in the hopes that the road will wash out and I can live on a dead end street. That'd be awesome. If you take Chris's advice, be sure there's someone watching you when you're on the roof. Stupid gutters.
 

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Swapped out the 13 year old 1/3hp sump pump for a nice new 1hp unit today. Been meaning to do it for a couple years, figured this would be a good time to get it done. Lowe's had all the sump pumps, gas cans, generators, extension cords, kerosene, flashlights, batteries, etc. on tables right up by the front door. Sump pumps were selling like hot cakes; glad I bought one today because they'll probably all be gone in a couple days.
 

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... If you take Chris's advice, be sure there's someone watching you when you're on the roof. Stupid gutters.
Yeah wet roofs and gutters don't mix. That sucks that you took a spill, glad you didn't wind up in the ER. It's been raining here all day, misting non-stop. No way in hell I'd be up on the roof today. I'll take a flooded basement before a spill off my roof!
 

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Wife said local Lowes was sold out of generators, sump pumps, flashlights and batteries..Walmart still had batteries but not alot of them. I already got all that stuff at the ready. Went to the gas station yesterday and got 3 full cans of gas for the generator, so i'm ready...I guess..I hate windstorms though, and they have already issued a wind advisory from monday til tue 8pm....and a flood watch from monday til tue evening due to heavy rain..
 

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..."Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the forecasting service Weather Underground, said this could be as big, perhaps bigger, than the worst East Coast storm on record, a 1938 New England hurricane that is sometimes known as the Long Island Express, which killed nearly 800 people."
 

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The only thing I think I will do to prepare is buy some bottled water. I have plenty of canned food, flashlights with extra batteries and I work wednesday regardless of damage if any as long as I can get to work and I will with 90% certainty have power there. I should make sure I have a full gas tank though. I really dont think much will happen where I am except maybe lose power and roads being flooded in places.

I hope everyone has minimal to no damage though and that we dont get hit like predicted.
 
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