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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/219034/poll-cuomo-still-leads-but-astorinos-profile-rises/

Comment #21 caught my eye:

'To all of those asking about 1994. THIS IS NOTHING LIKE 1994. In 1994, Mario Cuomo was running for a 4th 4 year term, and there was Mario fatigue among voters in a huge Republican wave year. To answer those questions about Pataki's standing in August of that year, Pataki was either tied or leading by a few points before Labor Day. Cuomo knew he was in for a fight since the spring of 1994. This is 2014, in a state with more Democratic voters and fewer Republican voters now than in 1994, this year is not shaping up to be a wave for either party, and Andrew Cuomo is running for only his 2nd term. Andrew's approval ratings at this point in the race are much better than Mario's were at a similar point, and Astorino is nowhere close to where Pataki was in the polls at this point. Mid-summer, everyone knew the governor's race in 1994 was a toss-up. It is anything but a toss-up in 2014.'

Barring some unforeseen circumstances, making up 20+ point difference will be very unlikely for Astorino.
 

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My understanding is quite the opposite. Mario had much better approval ratings than his buffoon son during that 1994 election cycle. AC's approval rating has been terrible, below 50% for quite some time, generally governors (in NY) with approval ratings of below 50% are toast in an upcoming election. Keep in mind that a poll is only a sampling of a small group of voters, it doesn't always represent the larger picture. No one thought Pataki was going to win in 1994, in fact I don't think anyone was seeing that election as a toss-up. Pataki's win was a big upset in 1994.
 

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Just a casual observation:

I watched the Little League World Series games yesterday (love them), and I say a princess bashing Astorino commercial at every commercial break, give or take 1 or 2. I saw a Rob Astorino commercial exactly 0 times.

I'm not big into faith, but I have a strong faith we are getting 4 more years of princess.
 

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i dont trust those polls for anything... they are skewed to show favor to a candidate so that sheep want to follow whoever is in the lead. the sheep dont like supporting the losing team, they are "fair weather fans".
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
My understanding is quite the opposite. Mario had much better approval ratings than his buffoon son during that 1994 election cycle. AC's approval rating has been terrible, below 50% for quite some time, generally governors (in NY) with approval ratings of below 50% are toast in an upcoming election. Keep in mind that a poll is only a sampling of a small group of voters, it doesn't always represent the larger picture. No one thought Pataki was going to win in 1994, in fact I don't think anyone was seeing that election as a toss-up. Pataki's win was a big upset in 1994.
This is the 1st link I found to check the poll numbers for 1994. It appears to be correct. Cuomo and Pataki were 41-40 few weeks before the election. Statistically polls are valid, even with only a sample of a 1000.

http://www.nytimes.com/1994/09/19/nyregion/cuomo-and-pataki-are-even-in-poll.html
 

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i dont trust those polls for anything... they are skewed to show favor to a candidate so that sheep want to follow whoever is in the lead. the sheep dont like supporting the losing team, they are "fair weather fans".
Exactly. Nobodys ever asked me my opinion for a poll.
 

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But how many gun owners were in these polls, we don't know, we also don't know what part of the state was polled. Take the same poll and ask the same questions upstate and tell me the numbers are the same. The difference this year is going to be who gets their base out to vote. Just like raising money andy ***** has $35 mil well that might have come from 2,500 donors while Astorino has $2.5 mil but that might have come from 25,000 donors that are more likely to vote, most of andy boy's donors probably don't even line in NY state. FU** cumho.:mad:
 

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i dont trust those polls for anything... they are skewed to show favor to a candidate
That's what I said about all of the "Democratic polls" done before the 2012 presidential election. Problem is...they were correct.
 

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I think that poll is MOSTLY city residents because they are the ones that "matter" . The state and our friends behind the lines on statin island will determin this race.
 

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We can only hope that the Dems are so sure that the election is in the bag that they get complacent and can't turn out their base. Ummm....yasureright...most of the Dem base doesn't even have to take off work to vote.
 

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We can only hope that the Dems are so sure that the election is in the bag that they get complacent and can't turn out their base. Ummm....yasureright...most of the Dem base doesn't even have to take off work to vote.
You take off work to vote? :O
 

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At breakfast this morning the discussion was about how reliable the polling was when even some of the papers are after Herr Cuomo over Moreland . I still say these polls are taken mostly down towards the city cause I havent been polled for anything not even ice cream favors ! That kinda sucks cause I'm waiting for primary day , just to see how many folks are going to vote for Teachout over Cuomo ! That will be the telling piece right there . If she strips away enough votes , we could see a huge flop on common core as it's turning up to be a huge loser for those who pushed it !
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
I think that poll is MOSTLY city residents because they are the ones that "matter" . The state and our friends behind the lines on statin island will determin this race.
I was called and polled last week, I answered 30+ questions, general questions on governor's race but a lot on Albany county where I reside.

If I remember correctly Mario was up 20 points the day before the election.
You remember wrong because in the link I posted they were 41-40 just 7 weeks before the election. Pataki won 49-45 but the polls had them close as early as summer.

New York gubernatorial election, 2010 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Everyone should look at the Cuomo-Paladino polls with a sample 900+ from 2010. All of them are dead on and Andy won 63-33. They are done by multiple groups and universities and they definitely phone people from across the whole state. You can say some of them are biased but you can't say they are ALL biased. Siena, Quinnipiac and Marist college all have FUAC leading 2-1 and they have for months. This forum will have a melt-down on November 5th, similar to Skretny's meltdown last Christmas.
 

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We owe it to Astorino (and each other) not give up...Rob hasn't. I put about 400 miles on my truck last week moving and posting signs for him. Astorino's main problem is name recognition. A lot can still happen yet, if Teachout and Astorino have their debates both will sling mud at komo and get some name recognition. Say a prayer..maybe USA Preet Bharara might give us an early Christmas gift.

Election history is like sports records...they are there to be broke. Being positive and optimistic is free and being negative is not mandatory. It makes me sick to see the Democrap tv ads calling Rob a crook and not mentioning the Moreland Commission scandal, tax breaks for komo election donors, how start Up NY punishes exiting business's that must continue paying HIGH taxes for ten years, how NY is the highest taxed state, why my daughter had to leave NY to find a job, how 38% of NYC is foreign born and controlling my upstate life etc.

Just try to be more optimistic will ya…
 

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I put up an astorino sign and the wife comes home and say.... Isn't that the guy guilty of graft and nepotism? Princesses commercials are working.
 

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I put up an astorino sign and the wife comes home and say.... Isn't that the guy guilty of graft and nepotism? Princesses commercials are working.
Nobody watches these ads, and everyone is on vacation. ;)
 
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